Prediction on Second Half of 2012 

By Tsubasa Kato

Will there be the Mayan apocalypse?

No. Those nonsense are NOT something I should be thinking about.

For me, more important things are things such as Sony’s stock price in the next half year to 2 years.

SAMSUNG vs. Apple will be an important issue.

Will the smartphones be even more commoditized?

Will there be another major earthquake in the future?

I am most interested in the effect of global economy on tech industry in the next half year to 2 years.

My prediction is that Android will grow substantially, and there will be introduction of more mobile OS built on Linux in the near future.

I know for sure there will be a severe competition from the Google’s Android market, but emerging OS such as Firefox OS may gain share.

Windows 8 may get severe dislikes from users who are not familiar with the Metro concept, and it may be an obstacle Microsoft must face in the coming months. Hopefully, they can persuade iPad users to convert to their Windows 8 tablet, but it will be very hard.

Instead of making newer OS that are competitors to iPad, Microsoft should market more of technologies such as Kinect to developers and electronics hackers around the globe. I know this is working quite well, and Kinect is well received, but there should be more investment on this field (as in time and more marketing).

The interesting fact that Microsoft has Linux support on Windows Azure is very interesting, and I believe a wise move in the cloud industry. This should be making things more interesting for Microsoft in the next few years.

Who knows, there might be some new Windows OS with Linux kernel or bundle! You never know, since Microsoft hated Linux before.

As for AWS that got 2TB SSD instances, this will clearly speed up how data gets stored and analyzed. It is only the beginning for super-fast big data analysis.

More thoughts coming soon… (Updated 18:13PM 7/24/2012)


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